Zaluzhny Was Right: Expert Evaluates Likelihood Of Significant Breakthrough By Ukrainian Armed Forces

• 10.01.2024, 15:42

A bold plan could reshape the course of history.

Materials periodically appear in the Western media that give rise to different interpretations and increase Ukrainians’ dissatisfaction with the country’s military-political leadership. Recently, the information space was filled with an article about the supposed bold plan of Valery Zaluzhny, which, according to the authors, had the potential to reshape the course of history.

This was reported by military expert Serhiy Grabsky in a commentary to Channel 24.

Thus, The Wall Street Journal journalist Yaroslav Trofimov shared in an article for the WP publication information about the alleged plan of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. According to him, Zaluzhny intended to carry out a counter-offensive in 2022 with the aim of isolating Russians in the occupied Crimea. However, according to Trofimov, the plan did not receive support from the United States of America.

According to the publication, it was a plan to punch through parts of Zaporizhzhia and sever the so-called “land bridge” to isolate Russian forces in the Crimea. According to the author, the partners considered this option as extremely risky and instead chose another direction — the right bank of the Kherson region.

The material also states that Ukraine didn't have a major ask. Zaluzhny estimated Ukraine only needed an additional 90 howitzers and a sufficient amount of artillery ammunition to pull it off.

“Realizing the quantity and quality of available weapons and equipment, realizing that we did not have an advantage in the air, which was confirmed in 2023, realizing that we must attack the location in the southern direction, which is massively supported from the Crimea, leaving the direction to Odesa, talking about breaking through the defense in the South is an unacceptable luxury,” Grabsky noted.

The Ukrainian military could successfully achieve a breakthrough, but maintaining this position also requires open discussion. As the military expert noted, the events that took place during 2022 indicate careful and thoughtful preparation for offensive operations.

According to the expert, in the Eastern direction, for example, the task was set to advance all the way to the Troitske – Svatove – Kreminna line with the aim of cutting communications. This plan envisaged significant facilitation of the liberation of the northern part of the Luhansk region.

“In the southern direction, leaving an enemy group on the right bank of the Kherson region, which would threaten Mykolaiv and Odesa, would be stupid. It looks like an absolutely voluntary assumption that the issue of breaking through the enemy’s defenses in the South was allegedly considered under the conditions that occurred in 2022,” Grabsky said.

He also noted that it is important to recognize the existence of objective realities and indicators that determine the possibility of carrying out a certain operation. According to his assessment, it can be argued that in 2022 the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieved maximum results, taking into account the available weapons, equipment and staffing levels.

“The year 2023 showed that even a thousand howitzers are not a large enough resource to break the resistance of the Russian army. The aggressor country had significantly more resources, despite the fact that the enemy was not so prepared at that time, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not have the ability to break through that front line and, most importantly, hold the position. After all, by creating a corridor, the military leadership would jeopardize the combat effectiveness and ability of the troops that made the breakthrough to conduct further military operations,” the military expert noted.

Grabsky emphasized that we need to take a critical approach to such articles and understand the complexity of the struggle and feat of our soldiers, who are now holding the front line in the most difficult conditions.

“Zaluzhny was not mistaken. He did everything right based on the capabilities we had as of September 2022. This must be understood and such information and psychological operations disguised as supposedly “analytical materials from independent sources” must be debunked,” the military expert concluded.