Not An Easy Choice For Trump
- 12.06.2025, 13:55
Will war with Iran break out?
Here is what information U.S. intelligence has received.
The situation looks extremely tense at the moment, and the probability of war is estimated at 50-60%, with the potential to rise to 80-90% if the June 15 talks in Oman fail.
Disposition is as follows: according to U.S. intelligence reports published in Axios and The New York Times, Israel is actively preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, particularly Fordow and Natanz, which are key to Iran's nuclear program. These plans are confirmed by the Israeli Air Force practicing operations using F-35 and F-15 fighter jets, as well as reconnaissance drones, which have already been used during Operation Days of Repentance on October 26, 2024, when Israel struck Iranian military sites in response to an Iranian missile attack.
This information being spread by the Americans may also be part of a diplomatic game - pressure on Iran on the eve of negotiations aimed at a new nuclear deal. However, a number of facts point to the reality of the strike plans.
The evacuation of US personnel from Iraq and Kuwait, reported by Reuters and Al-Monitor, as well as the increased alert of US bases in Qatar, the UAE and Jordan, indicate a serious perception of the threat. According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence has received information about possible Iranian retaliatory strikes against U.S. facilities in the region in the event of an Israeli attack. Iran has threatened to use hundreds of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel, as well as activate its proxy groups. This raises the possibility that an Israeli strike could trigger a chain reaction, drawing Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and even U.S. forces into the conflict.
Does the Trump administration need this war? I remain of the opinion that it does not. Trump, who returns to power in January 2025, is banking on diplomacy and "tough sanctions" to get Iran to agree to a new nuclear deal. His administration has set a deadline for negotiations - June 15 - and threatens "unprecedented consequences" if it fails. But war is against Trump's interests for several reasons.
First, quick results are impossible to achieve: according to U.S. intelligence estimates published in The Washington Post, an Israeli strike could delay Iran's nuclear program only for weeks or months without destroying it. Second, there are not enough resources for a full-scale war: the military budget, according to the Pentagon, is limited for new large-scale operations.
Third, the factor of the 2026 elections and domestic unrest in the United States, complicate political support for the war, because the American public is predominantly opposed to new conflicts in the Middle East.
In addition, the success of U.S. relations with the Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, depends on Trump's assurances that the region will remain stable. These countries have received promises from the U.S. administration of economic cooperation and defense against the Iranian threat without war. If conflict erupts, the agreements could be derailed and oil prices could rise to $100 to $120 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts, hitting the global economy and Trump's image as a "peacedealer."
It's not an easy choice for Donald Trump. On the one hand, Israel, a key ally, is pressuring the U.S. for support in the event of a strike. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu faces a domestic political crisis and could use a strike on Iran to bolster his position. On the other hand, Trump risks losing control of the situation if Israel acts on its own. According to Foreign Policy, the U.S. may limit itself to diplomatic and logistical support (such as supplying ammunition), but direct involvement in the war is unlikely due to domestic constraints.
Igor Semivolos, Facebook