"Lukashenko Is Afraid."
- 16.06.2025, 16:24
What to expect from the military exercises "West-2025".
Russia may use the West-2025 exercise to build up its army for a war against Ukraine, Latvian general Andis Dilans has said. He is confident that so far Moscow is not ready to attack Latvia, a NATO member state. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin simply does not have enough resources for that. Nevertheless, the Baltic States consider Russian-Belarusian maneuvers as a potential threat, so they are strengthening their borders and testing emergency warning systems. Journalists of FREEDOM studied the topic in detail.
Belarus is relocating the upcoming military exercises inland - away from the border with Ukraine. Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko's decision may have been influenced by the successes of the Ukrainian military in Kursk Oblast, says Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
"I think Lukashenko himself is afraid that we in Ukraine will think that the presence of a contingent at the exercises is a preparation for offensive actions. He understands after our retaliatory steps in Kursk, what we are capable of if we feel threatened," said Zelensky at a meeting with journalists.
The fact that Russia and Belarus are going to hold joint exercises on the Belarusian territory became known back in 2024. Then the general staffs of the armed forces of the two countries began preparations for maneuvers "West-2025. They are to be held in September. Later, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin announced that the authorities had decided to reduce the scale of joint exercises and move them away from the western borders. He explained this by Minsk's desire to ease tensions in the region.
Russia recently began delivering military cargoes to Belarus to the Machulishchi airbase by IL-76 aircraft, Militarnyi portal writes. An-124-100 heavy transport plane was also involved in the transportation.
The Machulishchi airbase is one of the few in Belarus capable of receiving military transport planes of large capacity. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this airbase has become a base for the Russian military. Russian transport aviation activity has been recorded by AviVector analysts.
"In June 2025, Russian transport aviation began flying to Belarusian airfields in conjunction with the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercise scheduled for this fall. We've visualized some of the recent flights to and from Belarus and will continue to keep you updated as new flights arrive," AviVector writes.
The question of Belarus' possible direct participation in Russia's war against Ukraine has been discussed since the start of the Russian army's full-scale invasion. However, the aggressor country hardly considers Minsk as a serious military ally, according to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. The Belarusian army is small in number, poorly equipped and trained. And the country's economy is completely dependent on Russia.
"When in 2022 Russia, which planned to end the war "in three days," had problems with weapons, Belarus gave them everything it could from its warehouses: ammunition, equipment - T-72, BMP-2, sights, body armor, helmets, machine tools. Now they have also established production of ammunition, which Russia lacks. Reactive, barrel ammunition - everything that is needed for war. The Belarusian military-industrial complex has become an annex of the Russian one. About 80% of the Belarusian military-industrial complex enterprises are integrated into the Russian military-industrial complex. This is actually one base," commented the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Oleh Ivashchenko.
Nevertheless, an invasion of Ukraine or the Baltic States by the Russian army from Belarus is one of the most likely scenarios. The head of Germany's Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, has warned that Russia is preparing to attack a NATO member state. The Kremlin is seeking to expand its influence at any cost, he said.
Moscow is preparing to test the strength of Article 5 of NATO's Collective Defense Treaty.
The head of Germany's intelligence service said Russia does not need large-scale bombings to do so. It is enough to send "green men" to Estonia, following the example of the annexation of Crimea, ostensibly to protect the Russian minority. And then watch whether the U.S. president will really send American soldiers across the Atlantic to defend a NATO partner.