"Russia Will Be Weakened."

• 18.06.2025, 10:11

How will Iran's defeat affect Putin?

What are the results of Israel's military operation against Iran today? Why is US President Donald Trump pushing for a deal with Tehran? Will the defeat of the ayatollah regime affect Putin?

About this and more, Charter97.org spoke with Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO) (Bratislava) Grigory Mesejnikov:

- First of all, this operation is successful in the sense that Israel, in fact, now has full control of the airspace. Iran's air defenses seem to be virtually non-existent. Israel has been preparing for this operation for a very long and thorough time, it knew exactly where the key sites of the Iranian nuclear program were.

Many of these sites Israel destroyed already in the first three days. It seems to me that this operation will end successfully even if the US does not join in. Although it remains to be seen whether that will happen. But in any case, we are talking about an operation that will enter the textbooks of military art and will be studied by many armies of the world.

It is also important to note the political aspect. On the one hand, Israel had long been preparing for a confrontation with Iran, but the decision to attack was made after the publication of the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which stated that Tehran had actually ceased to comply with the established requirements.

It is necessary to take into account that Iran is a state whose main foreign policy idea is the destruction of the Jewish state. Therefore, Israel simply had no choice but to go for such a confrontation. Because the international system, as it exists now, is unable to contain the ambitions of a state like Iran, which openly declares its desire to destroy another state.

- Trump insists on a deal, Israel is clearly eager to see it through. What is the most likely scenario?"

- Recent reports indicate that Trump is still leaning toward a military option to resolve the issue. Although this man is really difficult to predict - it is hard to know which option he will finally settle on.

He has, of course, some definite policy preferences of a more stable plan. For example, it is known that he is reluctant to impose serious sanctions against Russia and does not seek to exert strong pressure on it - this is his characteristic tactic. As for the Middle East, here, on the one hand, he supports Israel, but his preferred option is a peace deal.

But making peace at this stage between Israel and Iran is simply impossible, because for Israel it is a war for its very existence, and for Iran, constant attempts to destroy the Jewish state are part of their strategy. So in terms of a possible scenario, I think Israel will continue its military actions and will not adjust to Donald Trump's ambitions to reach some kind of peace agreement.

Yesterday I watched Binyamin Netanyahu speak - he kept emphasizing that the US supports Israel, that Donald Trump supports Israel, that this is his personal position. But no hint of any relaxation in Israel's approach, frankly, I didn't see in that speech. That is, Israel, it seems to me, will act to the end to completely eliminate the threat from Iran.

- Will Iran's defeat be a rehearsed blow to Putin? After all, another Kremlin ally in the Middle East, the Assad regime, fell earlier this year.

-Russia will be weakened, as Iran is one of Moscow's key allies and is among the states that can be conventionally called "international pariahs." However, there is a complicating factor here - the position of the United States, or rather Donald Trump himself. His statements and concrete steps give the impression that he is not set on defeating Russia.

This is the problem. Support for Ukraine, as we know, has declined. And the brutal bombing of Ukraine the other day showed that it is impossible to agree with Putin on anything that would limit his plans for Ukraine. Nevertheless, Trump is constantly looking for some reasons and excuses not to put pressure on Russia, not to impose new sanctions, looking for positive aspects in his relations with Putin.

On the one hand, the possible defeat of Iran, which I think will happen anyway, will objectively weaken Russia and may help Ukraine. But on the other hand, Trump's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war is quite different. We can see that he is moving away from the hardline stance that the Joe Biden administration took. And this change, unfortunately, will not be good for Ukraine.