Putin Is In No Hurry To Help His Ally
- 18.06.2025, 14:22
The development raises serious concerns for Moscow.
Russia is watching the growing military escalation between Israel and Iran with obvious concern, but has so far shown no willingness to actively intervene. Despite close cooperation with Tehran - especially since the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine - the Kremlin has limited itself to diplomatic statements and attempts to position itself as a possible mediator, but has avoided any concrete steps in support of Iran.
Since the beginning of Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, which destroyed critical military facilities and killed key Iranian commanders, Moscow has not made a single offer of military assistance. Iran has made no such requests, and according to sources close to the Kremlin, Russia has no plans to offer assistance on its own.
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and increased Western sanctions, Iran has become one of Moscow's key strategic partners. Tehran has provided Russia with hundreds of combat drones that have been actively used to attack Ukrainian targets. In addition, Iran has facilitated the construction of a drone manufacturing plant on Russian territory, which has become an important factor in maintaining the combat capability of the Russian army. In 2024, Moscow and Tehran signed a new strategic partnership agreement that envisages deepening cooperation, including in the defense sphere - but does not oblige Moscow to provide military assistance in case of direct aggression against Iran.
In contrast to the situation a decade ago, when the Kremlin dared to directly intervene militarily in Syria, now Moscow is not ready for similar steps. This puts it in a tricky situation. On the one hand, there is the strategic alliance with Iran, whose support has helped the Kremlin withstand Western pressure. On the other is the need to maintain good relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which oppose Iran's strengthening and on which Russia depends for oil policy and financial tools to circumvent sanctions.
The Russian army is already overstretched because of the war in Ukraine, and Moscow cannot afford large-scale military aid to yet another ally. Iran's requests for advanced weapons - such as fighter jets and air defense systems - have gone unmet for several years. According to The New York Times, despite decades of cooperation, Russia has supplied Tehran with arms selectively and with an eye on its interests in Israel and the Persian Gulf.
Putin is also seeking to strengthen relations with U.S. President Donald Trump and expects that mediation on de-escalation as well as on Iran's nuclear program could be the basis for a partial normalization of relations with Washington - and possibly an easing of anti-Russian sanctions.
On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held telephone talks with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian. He reached out to Donald Trump on Saturday to warn of the "unpredictable consequences" of the conflict in the Middle East and offer help in resolving it. The Kremlin has even said it is ready to accept Iran's highly enriched uranium on its territory as part of a new potential nuclear deal.
Moscow is trying to present itself to Washington as a responsible party capable of playing a constructive role in global politics, while avoiding open talk about the situation in Ukraine.
But even in the event of diplomatic success, Putin risks losing the trust of Tehran, where local elites fear that Russia could cut a deal with the United States behind their backs - especially if it helps ease Western pressure on Moscow.
At the same time, the possibility of regime collapse in Tehran looks more real than ever. This raises serious concerns for Moscow: a possible collapse of the Iranian regime could disrupt key economic and infrastructure projects, including the North-South international transportation corridor, which was supposed to help bypass sanctions and connect Russia with India via Iran. In addition, destabilizing Iran would weaken Russia's position throughout the Middle East, where it has already suffered a blow since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in December.
The Kremlin acknowledges that their ability to influence Israeli actions is extremely limited. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems determined to continue the campaign, and at this stage neither diplomatic pressure nor mediation initiatives can stop him. The possibility of negotiations with Israel is considered unlikely, especially if one of the campaign's goals is regime change in Tehran.
The escalating conflict over Iran only exacerbates Russia's strategic isolation, demonstrating the limits of its influence and ability to act as a global power.
Alexandra Appelberg, "Details"