"No One Will Be Ceremonious With Lukashenko."

• 19.06.2025, 16:20

Ukrainian expert assesses threats of the Zapad-2025 exercise.

Military analyst Alexander Kovalenko believes that the Belarusian-Russian exercise "Zapad-2025", which will be held in our country in the fall, poses a threat to Ukraine. The Ukrainian expert writes about it for "The Observer":

- Currently, there is no strike group on the territory of Belarus capable of launching an attack on Kiev or any other nearest regional center in northern Ukraine. On the other hand, the threat continues to be relevant.

Depending on how the Russian grouping will change over the near future, we can talk about one or another level of threat. Even if it reaches 40-60 thousand, it is a threat not so much for Kiev or any regional center, but for the border area - with not far-reaching prospects due to the limited capabilities of such groups.

A vivid example is the north of Kharkiv and Sumy regions, where the Russians were constrained.

But, giving permission to form even such a group on the territory of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko should understand perfectly well that it's not 2022 outside the window, and no one will be ceremonious with him in such a case.