Lukashenko's Naive Hopes

• 2.06.2025, 12:15

Why Uzbek citizens will not go to Belarus.

It seems that the authorities seriously expect that not only Pakistanis, but also representatives of Central Asian countries will be able to solve the staffing problems in the labor market of Belarus. But the hopes of officials look rather naive, writes "Salidarnasts".

In January, Alexander Lukashenko told officials: "If you want to invite Tajiks, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Syrians, Afghans, any people, invite them. But you should know what kind of people they are and that you need them in this place and that they can carry out this operation. If they don't know how - teach them."

In April, the governor again mentioned the prospect of greater involvement of representatives of Central Asian countries in Belarus:

- So let Poles and Lithuanians calm down. No Afghans, no Turkmens, Uzbeks and Tajiks will leave us. They will live and work with us and we will accept them. That's why they don't need to freak out there, and don't need to tweak ours to make a fuss.

Finally, after the fuss with the desire to bring about 150 thousand migrant workers from Pakistan into the country, on May 24, officials told Lukashenko about the "experiment" in Rechitsa district, where foreigners were attracted to work in agriculture. Four citizens of Uzbekistan were employed at a salary of Br3 thousand and they, it turned out, "disciplined" Belarusians.

- Before, everyone used to twiddle their thumbs and come to work later. Today the queue is standing and the work of tractor-mechanizers has stabilized," claimed the chairman of Gomel Regional Executive Committee Ivan Krupko.

The desire of the authorities to solve the problem of labor shortage is understandable, but is it realizable at the expense of Uzbek citizens?

Labor migrants from Uzbekistan: which countries and in what quantity they go

The 37-million-strong Uzbekistan has long established itself as a supplier of workers. Low-skilled workers with specialized secondary education who work abroad in construction, agriculture and services leave the country.

According to the country's Central Bank, last year about 6 million citizens went abroad and transferred almost 15 billion dollars to Uzbekistan. The exact number of labor migrants is not easy to say because of the complexity of accounting: most Uzbeks go to work abroad on their own.

Another matter is organized recruitment for work abroad, and the figures here are more accurate. According to the Migration Agency, 161 thousand Uzbek citizens went through organized recruitment last year.

In 2024, 526 people went to Belarus. This figure does not compare with the number of migrants from Uzbekistan who work in Russia, Great Britain, Germany, South Korea, Turkey.

Why is Belarus of little interest for labor migrants from Uzbekistan?

On the one hand, the desire of the Belarusian authorities is supplemented by factors that, in theory, should contribute to attracting workers from Uzbekistan. Among them are the visa-free regime between the countries and a small language barrier (many Uzbeks know Russian).

But why, despite these factors, Uzbek citizens do not go to work in Belarus en masse and are unlikely to do so?

The most obvious factor is low wages. Obviously, one can't earn as much in Belarus as in Poland, Germany or South Korea.

Officials say that four Uzbeks in Rechitsa district are paid Br3 thousand a month. But if you open the Belstat data, you'll see that the average salary in agriculture is about Br2 thousand. And this is average, not median: ordinary workers of collective farms get much less.

Another significant factor: in authoritarian Belarus there is a complicated process of employment and a high level of regulation in all spheres.

In comments on the Uzbek website under the material about Lukashenko's invitation of labor migrants to our country, they note: "Belarus is not Russia, where a 500-ruble fine will not work. If you violate the law, you will be sent home at once.

Labor migrants are more likely to go to countries with a large Uzbek diaspora and an easy process of registration for work. In addition, there is a large labor market - in Belarus it is comparatively small.

Of course, labor migrants from Uzbekistan have enough problems in other countries as well. For example, in Russia at the beginning of 2024 there were more than a million of them, but then this figure sharply decreased. The reason is anti-migrant raids: following the raids, the police deport illegal migrants, and those who have obtained Russian citizenship are issued summonses to the military and sent to war in Ukraine.

In the UAE, after the murder of a rabbi by Uzbek citizens and a mass brawl involving migrants from this country (15 people were detained), there were rumors about the possibility of canceling visa-free travel. The network writes that the conditions of entry into the country have already sharply tightened.

But even taking into account these factors, migrants from Central Asia still have a wide choice not to go to work in poor and authoritarian Belarus.