The Future Of The World Is Now Being Determined

• Vitaly Portnikov
• 20.06.2025, 16:37

The global situation is extremely complex and highly interconnected.

The conflict between Israel and Iran is increasingly becoming the center of global attention. This confrontation does not just threaten stability in the Middle East - it is already affecting the distribution of political energy and resources, distracting world leaders from other key topics, in particular the war in Ukraine.

A possible escalation of the conflict, especially in the form of missile strikes between Tehran and Jerusalem, could have unpredictable consequences. One of the main risks is the destabilization of the Caucasus. This region, located between Iran, Russia, Turkey and Europe, is not just a geographical bridge - it is the nervous system for the political balance from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea. A disturbance of the balance there could trigger a domino effect throughout the region and then the world.

In addition, the potential fall of the Iranian regime would not necessarily mean a victory for freedom. There is a serious risk that it would lead to chaos, inter-ethnic conflicts and waves of refugees streaming into the Caucasus, Turkey, Europe - and even Ukraine or Russia. In Europe, such a wave could cause a new migration crisis similar to the Syrian one. And, as a consequence, the strengthening of extreme political forces - both right-wing and left-wing - that are traditionally oriented toward Moscow.

The longevity of the regime in Iran depends primarily on the effectiveness of the security apparatus - primarily the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This structure is much like the KGB or the SS in its mechanisms of control over society. If the apparatus is weak, the regime may fall. But if it is effective enough, it can withstand even the strongest blows.

Ukraine, although not a party to the conflict, will not stand aside. If the Iranian regime collapses, Russia will lose one of its main allies. But at the same time, chaos in the region could complicate the situation for Ukraine - both geopolitically and migrationally. An alternative scenario, in which the ayatollahs' regime survives but loses its aggressiveness and nuclear ambitions, could reduce the risks for both Israel and Ukraine.

The U.S. position - especially in light of Donald Trump's return to power - is crucial. Trump is not seeking to drag the United States into open war with Iran. But his administration may try to engage in separate negotiations with Tehran - even if they do not take Israel's interests into account. At the same time, Trump continues to ignore any peacekeeping initiatives by Putin, believing that only the United States has the right to resolve global conflicts.

Putin, meanwhile, is using the Iranian crisis to advance his own interests. In particular - to weaken support for Ukraine in Europe by threatening a new wave of migrants. His calls for talks with Ukraine are nothing more than an attempt to legitimize Kiev's capitulation. The Kremlin's demands - demilitarization of Ukraine and recognition of the occupied territories - have no trace of a real desire for peace.

Another troubling signal is Trump's attitude toward the G7. He does not perceive this structure as an alliance of democracies, but only as an economic club in which, according to his logic, Putin and Si Jinping should be. His refusal to participate in G7 and NATO summits shows his unwillingness to cooperate with traditional allies - and this already has a direct impact on his support for Ukraine.

Iran's threats against the US and Israel should be taken with a certain degree of skepticism. This is probably an attempt by Tehran to intimidate Washington and avoid direct intervention. But even if these threats do not turn into a catastrophe, they leave the situation tense and unpredictable.

In the coming weeks, we should expect an intensification of diplomacy. Trump will try to avoid open conflict, while Iran will try to prolong the situation by shelling Israeli targets to strengthen its negotiating position. Israel, meanwhile, will try to draw the U.S. into the conflict to finally stop Tehran's nuclear program.

The global situation is an extremely complex and closely related one. What is happening in Ukraine, in Iran, in Washington, the Kremlin or Beijing are parts of the same geopolitical chessboard. And the decisions that are being made now will determine not only the fate of individual countries. They will determine the future of the world.

Vitaly Portnikov, Facebook