Is Putin Going To Be Next?

• 21.06.2025, 8:24

The Kremlin may be in for a shock.

Real changes in the Kremlin's policy toward Ukraine and real prospects for peace will emerge only when Russian dictator Vladimir Putin loses his sense of total impunity. A radical change in the situation requires a serious foreign or domestic shock. Such an event could be, for example, the fall of Iran's ayatollah regime. If there is a collapse of a theocratic dictatorship that was recently considered stable, it will become a precedent and a symbol for other authoritarian leaders, including Putin.

When the same tough signals are sounded toward Moscow that are being sounded toward Tehran - for example, U.S. President Donald Trump's statements that the United States knows where Ayatollah Khamenei is at any moment - this could change the Kremlin's behavior. For now, the Kremlin dictator continues to insist on Ukraine's surrender - only in this way, and not otherwise, can the numerous demands made by Moscow in negotiations with Ukraine be viewed.

This is the opinion in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA Russian opposition activist Olga Kurnosova expressed this opinion.

- Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislitsa said that the Istanbul format of Russia-Ukraine talks is de facto unable to ensure progress on the issue of ending the war. Only prisoner exchange issues can be resolved in this format. In his opinion, given that only the first person in Russia makes decisions, the situation can only be changed by a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. At the same time, we see Peskov's statements that the Kremlin is considering the possibility of a meeting between Putin, Zelensky and Trump, but it will require very long preparation. And finally, Putin himself says that the war needs to be ended as quickly as possible, but at the same time the facts show that he is preparing for a protracted war. Do you agree that the Istanbul format has outlived its usefulness? What format is still possible, apart from negotiations at the level of the presidents of Ukraine and Russia?

- First of all, the solution of humanitarian issues is also important. If the Istanbul format is necessary only for the return of all prisoners, all those held in Russia to their homeland, it is already a good thing. Yes, I can also say that from the Istanbul format, unfortunately, even a ceasefire, let alone a long-term agreement, cannot come out of it. Nevertheless, we see that Ukrainians are returning home, and this is also a very important result.

With regard to the war, I have said, I say and will continue to say that as long as Putin is in power in Russia, long-term peace cannot be counted on under any format - no matter if it is a meeting with Trump, no matter if it is a meeting without Trump, or any other meeting. The main guarantee of peace is the absence of Putin and his team at the helm in the Russian Federation.

Perhaps there may be possibilities of some agreements when there is a trilateral format. But I personally wouldn't count on it much. Moreover, Putin's main goal is definitely not the four regions of Ukraine plus Crimea or even all of Ukraine, which he still wants to have under his control. Putin's main goal is to gain more control over at least all the republics of the former Soviet Union - it's no coincidence that so much attention is now being paid to Moldova - and his long-term plans are to control the countries of the former socialist bloc, the countries of Eastern Europe.

Yes, it may be a direct military presence, but we see the amount of agency that is now thrown into Europe, and we see that Putin's Russia continues to destabilize the situation in Europe.

So as long as Putin remains in power, no one will have to live peacefully - not only Ukraine, but also other European countries.

- The same Sergey Kislitsa stated that Putin is ready to negotiate only with the powers that be. Obviously, this is the United States and, perhaps, China. Do you suppose that if Trump really had a desire to end this war, he could present some kind of ironclad argument or simply give Putin some "perks" to make him give up his imperialist goals, at least for a few years?

- Trump is always offering "perks," but he has not demonstrated strength so far. Let's see how the situation in the Middle East develops. If, as a result of what is happening there, the ayatollah regime falls, it will be an example of how to act with Putin.

- And what is Xi Jinping capable of? Recently we have seen a very serious rapprochement between China and Putin's Russia. Everyone saw Xi Jinping in Red Square in Moscow on May 9 with a Colorado ribbon. We also see Xi's rapprochement with the Lukashenko regime in Belarus. Do you suppose that under certain circumstances, the Chinese leader could play a role in the context of ending the war? But so far he has not squeezed all the juices out of Russia, so for now he benefits from a situation in which he can get all sorts of preferences from Putin, while Russia is weakening more and more. When Si Jinping gets everything he wants, he can start putting more pressure on Putin. And he certainly has the capacity for such pressure, because without supplies of what Putin gets from China and North Korea - and North Korea won't do anything without China - it will be difficult for him to wage war.

- The situation for Trump domestically is not easy. Protests in California that have spread to other states. Do you think that if Trump were to cease to be president of the United States for one reason or another, would that play in Putin's favor to be more accommodating in the process?"

- I don't see that likelihood anytime soon. But even if something were to happen and Trump were to cease to be President of the United States, JD Vance would become President. In the meantime, his position is not much different from Trump's.

- Putin said that a meeting with President Zelensky is necessary at the final stage of the war to "put a point". Does this mean that by this "point" is meant the surrender of Ukraine? Or is there some other format in mind here?

- No other format is in mind. We see that all the proposals that are being made by Russia cannot be called anything other than a surrender by Ukraine. All these demands and the reduction of the army and the like sound exactly like that. Putin is seeking exactly the capitulation.

Yes, he wants to meet with Zelensky as a winner - as the one who brought Zelensky to his knees. He sees no other format.

- To summarize, as long as Putin is at the helm in Russia, we should not expect this war to end.

- At least not as long as he is confident. Something very serious has to happen. For example, he must run out of money to fight this war. Or he has to see the ayatollah regime fall and realize that such things are possible.

So far, we see him going all over the place to pretend to be a peacemaker in Iran. But listen, you wage war by attacking Ukraine and you tell us what a peacemaker you are? Are you out of your mind?

When he sees that situations can be handled completely differently... As Trump said, the States know where Ayatollah Khamenei is at every moment. When the same words are said to Putin and when he realizes that there are means that can destroy him at any moment, maybe then he will be more cooperative.