Natallia Radzina: There Are Several Reasons Why Kellogg Came To Minsk

• 23.06.2025, 12:32

Lukashenko's regime is weak and ready to release political prisoners.

Editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website Natallia Radzina in an interview with YouTube channel of the well-known journalist Evgeny Kiselyov commented on the visit to Minsk of the special representative of the US President Keith Kellogg and the release of 14 Belarusian political prisoners, including people's blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski, which took place on June 21:

- The release of Siarhei Tikhanovsky and other political prisoners shows us that it is necessary to maintain sanctions pressure on the dictatorship in Belarus until all political prisoners are released. Lukashenko's regime is weak and ready to release prisoners of conscience in exchange for easing the sanctions regime.

Of course, we welcome Keith Kellogg's visit to Belarus. At first he raised a lot of questions, it was unclear what one could talk about with an absolutely tame dictator in the context of the war between Russia and Lukashenko's regime against Ukraine, but this visit was justified by the release of prisoners of conscience.

And it is necessary to continue to demand the release of absolutely all political prisoners.

Evgeny Kiselyov wonders what Keith Kellogg's mission in Belarus was. Does the US want to tear Lukashenko's regime away from Russia? Natallia Radzina believes that even Washington is not capable of solving such a task:

- Lukashenko is absolutely non-self-sufficient in his actions and is unable to control his own army. And we saw in 2022 that all his assurances that Russian soldiers would not enter Ukraine from the territory of Belarus turned out to be a lie. So we can't talk about Lukashenko's independence.

My Ukrainian friends, politicians and diplomats, have asked why Kellogg is going to Minsk. I think that now it is very important for Putin and Lukashenko to keep some kind of negotiation process with the U.S., because they are afraid of President Trump, they realize that he is absolutely unpredictable, that you can't trust his statements about negotiations. The situation with Iran has shown this. One can talk about negotiations and the next day launch a missile strike on nuclear facilities.

And that is why their task is for Trump to stay in this negotiation process at any cost and not to move to decisive action, not to impose crushing sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

I think that in Moscow Lukashenko was given the go-ahead and told to talk to the Americans and release prisoners of conscience. This is good, because nothing is more important than human life. While this negotiation process is going on, while they are discussing what the U.S. response will be, it is important that all political prisoners are released.

Could Keith Kellogg have warned Lukashenko about the consequences of provocations during the Russian-Belarusian exercises "Zapad-2025"? Natallia Radzina does not rule out that this is one of the reasons for the Americans' visit to Minsk:

- The Zapad-2025 exercises, which will be held in September, cause great concern in the Baltic States and Poland. And, by the way, the other day the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Alexander Syrsky said that an attack from the territory of Belarus on Ukraine is not excluded. And, of course, sanctions against the Belarusian regime can and should be strengthened here.

It would be possible, for example, to disconnect all Belarusian banks from SWIFT. Again, it is very important to monitor the sanctions regime against Belarusian oil products and potash fertilizers. Lukashenko's regime would be directly affected by strengthening sanctions against Russia, including on energy resources or setting a ceiling on the price of Russian oil. At the same time, Lukashenko's economy would also be hit. There is certainly something to work on here.

Will the released blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski become one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition? Natallia Radzina notes that it's too early to talk about it:

- I think it's incorrect to ask him these questions, because the man should come to his senses. Siarhei Tsikhanouski has just come out of prison. And, judging by the press conference, he still has a hard time imagining what he will do in the future. The former political prisoner only said that he intends to restore the work of his YouTube channel. Recall that Siarhei Tsikhanouski was a well-known blogger in 2019-2020.

The editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org expressed the opinion that Lukashenko's nomenclature is trying to portray rapprochement with the West. The journalist pointed to the composition of the participants of the negotiations between the Belarusian regime and the United States:

- In addition to KGB Chairman Ivan Tertel, there was Belarus' permanent representative to the UN Valentin Rybakov. Who is Valentin Rybakov? He is an old career diplomat who has been working for the Belarusian government for many years, serving it primarily in the United States.

He is the husband of Natalia Petkevich, former deputy head of Lukashenko's administration. She is now deputy prime minister. Natalia Petkevich, like her husband Valentin Rybakov, is known as a longtime negotiator on the part of the Lukashenko regime with the West.

The U.S. negotiations with official Minsk are, I'm sure, organized by this couple. It should be said that in 2008, thanks to Natalia Petkevich's contacts with the administration of the then US president, Belarusian political prisoners were also released. After the 2006 presidential election, presidential candidate Alexandr Kazulin found himself in prison. The U.S. imposed economic sanctions against Lukashenko's regime, in particular sanctions against Belneftekhim enterprises. Thanks to negotiations and the release of political prisoners, the sanctions were lifted. Now I see that Lukashenko has thrown Petkevich and Rybakov in this direction.

Situationally, this is not bad, because it may lead to the release of political prisoners. And maybe even to some easing of repression inside the country.

Lukashenko dreams that Minsk will again become the capital of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. And this can be discussed during negotiations with the Americans, Natallia Radzina believes:

- Lukashenko very much wants to return to the situation of 2015, when he was removed sanctions and gained legitimacy in the eyes of the West. He dreams of regaining his star hour, when Western leaders, the U.S. president, Putin and President Zelensky will come to Minsk, and he will "bring buckets of coffee," as he used to say.

Will Ukraine agree to this? After all, as my good friend Dmitry Bondarenko said, what does "Minsk-3" mean? It means that there will be a repeated attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

If we make Minsk a negotiating platform again today, it will end tragically. This time they will attack not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic States and Poland. Perhaps it will happen not this year, but in four years, as European leaders say.

Another reason why Lukashenko wants talks with the West is the dictator's fear for his security:

- Putin is losing one by one his allies. The Assad regime has fallen, crushing blows to Hezbollah and Hamas, now the US has thankfully joined the war against Iran and nuclear and military sites are being struck. Putin is already weakened. Lukashenko sees this and is frightened by it.

I do not exclude that during the negotiations with the Americans some kind of security guarantees for Lukashenko himself could have been discussed. But who can give them today? If Putin's regime falls, Lukashenko will not hold power for even 30 minutes.

How can he retain power if all his resources come from Moscow. No West will give them to him. And this is cheap oil and gas, billions of dollars of non-repayable loans and subsidies.

If the Russian regime falls, I think the Belarusian nomenclature will quickly orient itself. It is ready for it. There will be popular protests. The changes will follow the example of the 90s in Moscow - failure of GKChP and immediate revolution. It is very important to take advantage of this chance to bring to power not the former Lukashists, but the democratic opposition, which would start immediate reforms and the country's movement towards the European Union.