Did Kellogg Come To Minsk Because Of China?
- 24.06.2025, 15:29
Political scientist's version.
What is the main purpose of the visit of the special representative of the US president Keith Kellogg to Minsk, which took place on June 21.
About this the site Charter97.org asked Belarusian political scientist Anatoly Kotov:
- The main purpose of the visit is to protect American interests, as the new administration in Washington understands it.
The main priority for them is to prevent the growth of Chinese influence anywhere. Accordingly, they came because they saw a potential threat in the possible expansion of Belarusian-Chinese cooperation.
China is in no hurry to go anywhere. It gives credits, then takes away the infrastructure. There are plenty of such examples all over the world, but probably the most painful for the USA was the Panama Canal, which was practically taken away right under its nose.
All the rest is just an addition and background. From the point of view of the situation in the region, the U.S. is interested in ending the war in Ukraine and consolidating some kind of status quo. You may or may not like this approach, but it is the current expression of American foreign policy.
The U.S. does not dispute Russia's influence in the region and does not seek to change it. It just wants to set the boundaries beyond which it cannot go. Exactly in the same way that is happening now in Iran. There is no desire to tear down the regime, but it must not have nuclear weapons or any military power. If the deal is broken, the consequences will be devastating. That's obvious right now. And so, maybe, some internal factors will work, the situation inside will change.
As far as Belarus is concerned, the external framework looks like this. In the sphere of influence of Russia, but with a certain autonomy. The main thing - without China. In case of a truce with Ukraine - compliance with the terms of the truce. We can talk about everything else - lifting of sanctions, trade, contacts.
But we should be grateful to the USA for the fact that even under realpolitik they are able to release political prisoners. Stopping repressions, democratization and regime change are purely up to the Belarusians themselves, who have no good cards to play. This is the harsh reality.
Before starting to change the situation, it should be recognized. As well as the fact that the interests of the Belarusians may not coincide with the interests of the USA. It is necessary to find and propose areas where these interests coincide.
- Should we wait for the release of new political prisoners?
- Release is possible if Minsk is interested in maintaining communication with the United States and strengthening its position in the dialog with Russia and the United States.
- Could Kellogg have discussed Western exercises with Lukashenko?"
- He could have. Although in the current configuration, the exercises are not a threat. This is not the winter of 2021-2022.