FT: US Strike On Iran May Force China To Reconsider Attack On Taiwan

• 26.06.2025, 14:55

Beijing is now much more sober about the situation.

Donald Trump has so far positioned himself as an isolationist who has no intention of dragging the US into foreign military conflicts. This has suited China's leadership, which has counted on him to respond with restraint to Beijing's expansionist policies, including with regard to Taiwan. But the U.S. involvement in bombing Iran should change that view.

American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will force Chinese President Si Jinping's foreign policy advisers to reassess how Trump might act on issues Beijing considers vital to its national interests, writes Financial Times, citing experts as well as officials in the US and Taiwan.

"They thought Trump 2.0 would be more willing to make deals, perhaps more pragmatic and therefore more stable," said Andrea Ghiselli, an expert on China's Middle East policy at the University of Exeter. - In reality, it turns out not to be the case."

The administration of Taiwan's President Lai Tsingde is now analyzing the strategic implications of US action against Iran, a person with knowledge of the matter told the FT. He said Taipei's first reaction was that Trump had "shattered the impression" that isolationists were running the ball in Washington: "This should probably help in containing China. But it will take time to observe exactly how China will adjust its policies."

Trump has repeatedly claimed that no wars have been started in the world during his administration and insisted that the US should not get involved in "foreign" military conflicts. But the war between Israel and Iran, which lasted 12 days from the first strikes to the declaration of a ceasefire, led him to join one side and order missile and bomb attacks on the other's facilities. In doing so, anti-bunker bombs were used for the first time to destroy underground facilities where Iran's nuclear program (which the latter calls peaceful and Israel calls aimed at its destruction) is being implemented.

The US involvement in the conflict has been loudly opposed by some isolationist supporters of Trump and the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green, one of Trump's most ardent supporters, wrote:

"Anyone who droolingly wants the U.S. fully engaged in the war between Israel and Iran is not [a follower of] America First/MAGA. We're tired of foreign wars."

Television host Tucker Carlson conducted a hard-hitting interview with Republican Senator Ted Cruz, asking, among other things, how many people live in Iran. After answering "I don't know," Carlson chided the senator, "You don't know the population of the country whose regime you want to overthrow?" Carlson also publicly called on Trump to reject escalation in the Middle East, warning that it could lead to the "end" of his presidency and calling Trump the only person "who can make peace" between the warring parties.

"Somebody please explain to crazy Tucker Carlson that IRAN CANNOT HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS!", Trump replied.

Beijing must now rethink the likelihood of whether Trump will take a more isolationist approach or go for military intervention if China uses force to assert control over Taiwan, the FT writes. A US official told the newspaper that Trump's order for airstrikes against Iran goes against Beijing's perception that the president's threats "cannot be taken seriously": "The view that he would flinch in a crisis situation has now been disproved; it has to some extent strengthened the deterrence factor against China."

Trump's decision has put "very much in question" Beijing's view that the president would follow a restrained foreign policy and not intervene in crises involving Taiwan or China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, said Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center. Beijing will also have to reassess whether its provocative actions, including overflights of warplanes and warship passages near Taiwan's very borders, could provoke retaliation from Trump, she says:

"After the war with Iran, the Chinese will be much more sober about the situation."