Putin Doesn't Realize It: Kremlin's Actions Playing Into Ukraine's Hands Are Named
- 8.06.2025, 19:01
In the long run, this could lead to an internal collapse in Russia.
Vladimir Putin is deliberately stalling any peaceful dialog in order to continue the war against Ukraine and gradually seize new territories. The Kremlin regime is counting on Ukrainian society's fatigue, economic exhaustion and Kiev's gradual capitulation. However, as Alexander Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark, notes in a column for The Hill, procrastination could play in Ukraine's favor.
The expert acknowledges that Russia has advantages in a protracted war - its population, the scale of its economy and the power of its military-industrial complex exceed Ukraine's by many times. Moscow has nearly four times the population and nearly 19 million men of draft age, compared to less than 5 million in Ukraine.
According to other analysts, notably Collin Maisel and Matthew Burrows, Russia can afford to lose three times as many soldiers as Ukraine while suffering fewer casualties in relative terms.
Motyl emphasizes, however, that dry numbers do not mean victory. History knows many examples when numerical advantage did not guarantee success - the United States did not win in Vietnam, and France was defeated in Algeria. Similarly, Russia lost its wars with Japan and the Crimea. According to the expert's belief, the decisive factors in war are leadership, morale, strategy, tactics and the quality of weaponry - these are the factors that can turn the tide of war despite numerical disparity.
Motyl notes that the duration of the conflict is another argument against Russia's bet on resource advantage. He also quotes Ukrainian officer Robert Brovdi ("Madyara"), who argues that the key to a Ukrainian victory is to systematically destroy more of the enemy than the Russian Federation is able to mobilize.
In particular, Russia recruits about 30,000-32,000 new soldiers each month, while the AFU is hitting at least 20,000. Brovdi estimates that for a strategic crackdown, it is necessary to increase enemy losses by another 10-12 thousand every month. This will stop the offensives, demoralize the Russian troops, and in the long run may cause an internal collapse in Russia.
To achieve such an effect, Ukraine needs to build up the capabilities of drone units or significantly increase the effectiveness of existing ones. If the hit rate rises by at least 15%, it is possible to bring Russian losses to 35,000 per month by August.
At the end of the day, according to Motyl, if the assumptions of Maisel, Burrows, and Brovdi are correct, even a draw in this war would be a victory for Ukraine, given the initial disparity. And at best, it will be the beginning of the collapse of the Russian state machine and a great Ukrainian victory.