Trump's Ultimatum: Will Putin Make Concessions?
- 15.07.2025, 7:42
The Kremlin's plans for the summer could be scrapped.
U.S. President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Russia with clear deadlines and possible consequences for refusing to stop the war.
What such statements of the White House host mean in practice - according to the material RBC-Ukraine.
How can Putin respond to Trump's ultimatum?
There is a hint of a shift in negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. U.S. President Donald Trump has moved from empty statements of dissatisfaction with Putin to gradual pressure on Russia. Although this pressure has yet to become practical, Trump's threats have now become clear and with concrete deadlines.
In the Oval Office, the US president said: if Russia and Ukraine do not reach an agreement within 50 days - before the end of the August recess - the United States will impose secondary tariffs against Russia.
"We will impose secondary tariffs if we don't reach an agreement within 50 days. It's very simple, and they will be at 100%," he said during an interaction and during a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
At the same time, Trump expressed hope that such measures could be avoided, but emphasized that the US is ready to act tough.
This time, the US president threatens secondary tariffs not only to Putin, but also to his allies and partners. First of all, it is India and China, which buys Russian energy resources, the executive director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Alexander Leonov told RBC-Ukraine. If secondary tariffs are imposed, it will mean a rise in the price of Indian and Chinese goods, which are imported into the United States 100%. Accordingly, they will lose competition to goods from other countries on the American market.
In this situation, it will also be key for European countries to join Trump's initiative.
"If Europe joins this ultimatum and, say, we will also impose such tariffs, then China and India will simply have no other choice but to start pressing Russia hard on the ceasefire. Because these countries will really suffer a lot and they cannot replace both the American and European markets for themselves at once," Leonov told the publication.
Patriot and not only
The second part of Trump's statement concerns the provision of weapons to Ukraine. The US president confirmed that 17 Patriot air defense systems are being prepared to be sent to Ukraine. Some of them, according to Trump, will arrive in a few days.
The US president has previously announced the provision of additional Patriot systems to Ukraine. However, he did not explain what exactly he meant - new batteries or just missiles to the existing ones.
At the same time, Ukraine will receive not only weapons for defense. What exactly we are talking about, Trump did not specify. However, the previous day, the publication Axios, citing sources in the White House, reported that Trump's plan would likely include long-range missiles capable of hitting targets deep inside Russian territory, including Moscow. Military Watch Magazine subsequently reported that Trump is considering giving Ukraine JASSM missiles.
These long-range precision cruise missiles are designed to destroy fortified ground targets without having to enter the range of enemy air defenses. They are particularly launched from fighter jets such as the F-16 and are capable of accurately engaging targets up to 370 kilometers away in the basic version and more than 900 kilometers in the JASSM-ER modification.
U.S., Ukrainian and European officials expect that these weapons could change the course of the war and influence Putin's decision to allow a cessation of hostilities, Axios reported.
Among other things, the U.S. weapons remain key in the context of containing the Russian offensive on most parts of the front.
"The delivery of weapons to Ukraine may level out these desires and plans Putin is making with regard to Ukraine during this summer," Leonov emphasized.
The principal difference from previous deliveries is that the weapons will be bought for Kiev by NATO member states.
"We have concluded an agreement under which we will send them weapons and they (NATO - ed.) will pay for them. The United States will not make any payments. We're not buying anything, but we will produce it and they will pay for it," Trump noted.
The US president will be able to pitch this to his voters as a "good deal." On the other hand, NATO's European members have the option of writing aid to Ukraine into their own defense spending, and thus come closer to meeting the 5% of GDP defense target - which was key for the US at the last NATO summit.
A breakthrough at last?
"This is really a huge breakthrough, because until a month and a half ago, Donald Trump refused to provide Ukraine with any weapons at all and all the deliveries, even that were stopped and resumed, only concerned what Joe Biden promised and planned to give to Ukraine. So now it is actually a new stage in the policy of this White House administration," Leonov told the publication.
Even more tools for Trump to pressure Russia may be given by congressmen. Diplomatic circles in Europe and Ukraine have high hopes for the sanctions bill by Senators Graham and Blumenthal, which has the potential to hit the Russian economy hard.
But one should not relax. Russia should probably be expected to try again to mess with Trump's head, as it has done several times before.
"I wonder how the Russians will try to win this situation back a little bit. And whether Trump will go along with it, or will press his line," Leonov summarized.
But even such half-hearted statements from the White House will definitely help Ukraine at least in the short term.