The Conflict Between Russia And Azerbaijan: How Escalation May End

• 3.07.2025, 12:39

Moscow is too weak.

Russia is still weak for military intervention in the South Caucasus and pressure on individual countries. The Kremlin will realize that negotiations are better than confrontation.

A South Caucasus analyst at the Polish Institute of International Relations Wojciech Wojtasiewicz said in a commentary RBC-Ukraine that the Azerbaijani authorities are not interested in subordinating Russia, but in pursuing a multi-vector foreign policy. This emphasizes Azerbaijan's independence and perseverance.

Azerbaijan can afford such a position after the victory in Karabakh, as well as thanks to a strong army and military support from Turkey and Israel. Therefore, forceful pressure on Baku is ineffective.

At the same time, according to the analyst, Moscow is weak to pressurize militarily, so it may switch to negotiations later.

"Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is now too weak to intervene militarily in the South Caucasus region to pressure individual countries. Sooner or later, the Kremlin will realize that behind-the-scenes negotiations with Ilham Aliyev (President of Azerbaijan - ed.) will yield better results than open confrontation," Voytasevich noted.