"Lukashenko Increases The Risk Of Dragging The Country Into A Hot Conflict"

• 5.07.2025, 21:44

Why would a dictator want a "Nuttall"?

The ruler of Belarus has once again announced the appearance of the Russian missile system "Oreshnik" in our country. According to him, it will happen already this year.

In the opinion of historian Alexander Friedman, which he expressed in "Ordinary Morning", Lukashenko has a twofold motivation for the deployment of "Oreshnik".

- On the one hand, it is prestige, strengthening his position. On the other hand, he himself is a figure in the big Russian geopolitical game. The combination is complex.

But if we take a step back: if Iran already had nuclear weapons and the likelihood of their use, a strike on Iran would most likely not follow - just as strikes on North Korea do not follow. North Korea has become a nuclear power, and Trump, despite threats, could do nothing," Alexander Fridman explains.

But there is another side. The war in Ukraine shows that the nuclear umbrella is not a hundred percent guarantee.

-Russia is a nuclear power, Ukraine is not, but Ukraine strikes Russian territory, and there is no nuclear response," the analyst explains. - Perhaps, after all these wars, the attitude to nuclear weapons as a deterrent will change.

But the fact remains that by increasing Belarus' militarization and its dependence on Russia, Lukashenko increases the risk of the country being drawn into a conflict - not only in the "cold" format (infrastructure, support for the military economy), but also in the "hot" one.